The Odyssey, Christopher Nolan's adaptation of Homer's epic poem, was released by Universal on July 17, 2026. Matt Damon stars as Odysseus. It is a summer blockbuster. It is also, according to multiple awards forecasters, the film that more Academy members have seen and responded to than anything else released this year, and is projected by some for as many as fifteen Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards in March 2027.
That combination, a film that dominates summer multiplexes and then leads the awards conversation before the festivals have finished, is rarer than it sounds. It happened with Oppenheimer in 2023, which Nolan also directed. It has happened perhaps a handful of times in the last two decades in any meaningful way. The more common pattern is that summer ends, the festivals begin, and the awards conversation resets around a new set of films that nobody outside a jury had seen in August.
This year, the festival circuit has produced a genuinely interesting field. Venice, Cannes, and Telluride have given us films I expect to be talking about in January. I am not sure any of them can catch what Nolan put into theaters two months ago. But the race over the next three months is worth paying close attention to.
What Venice gave us
The 83rd Venice Film Festival awarded its Golden Lion to Woman Unknown, directed by May El-Toukhy. It is a WWII-set historical drama about a housemaid whose relationship with a German soldier threatens her future. Mathilde Arcel won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress for the same film.
The detail that I have not been able to stop thinking about: Woman Unknown was the only film in the Venice competition lineup directed solely by a woman. The jury gave that film the top prize.
Whether that reflects the quality of the film, the composition of the jury, the composition of the competition slate, or some combination of all three is a question the trade press spent Venice's closing weekend debating without resolution. I do not think the question has a clean answer. What I know is that Woman Unknown is now the Golden Lion winner for 2026, and that matters for what happens in January.
The Silver Lion for Grand Jury Prize went to Possible Love, directed by Lee Chang-dong. It is a Netflix film. Chang-dong, the South Korean director of Poetry and Burning, is returning after an eight-year gap since his last film, and each film he has made has been treated as essential. The Grand Jury Prize is not a consolation prize when it goes to a filmmaker of that standing.
The Volpi Cup for Best Actor went to John Malkovich for Wild Horse Nine, directed by Martin McDonagh. This is the film I keep returning to when I think about what can actually run against The Odyssey. More on that in a moment.
What Cannes and Telluride gave us
The Palme d'Or at Cannes 2026 went to Fjord, directed by Cristian Mungiu. Mungiu is the Romanian director of 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days and Graduation. Fjord stars Renate Reinsve and Sebastian Stan as devoutly religious parents who face abuse allegations after relocating to Norway. It screened at Telluride to strong reviews. A Palme d'Or winner that also generates real Telluride momentum is the kind of film that accumulates weight through awards season rather than peaking early.
Telluride, which ran over Labor Day weekend, functioned this year as it usually does: the first moment the industry could see the fall's major contenders in a room and compare notes. The film that generated the strongest response there was Wild Horse Nine.
McDonagh's last feature was The Banshees of Inisherin in 2022, which received nine Oscar nominations including Best Picture. Wild Horse Nine is a black comedy in which Malkovich and Sam Rockwell play two CIA agents on a mysterious mission to Easter Island. The full cast includes Steve Buscemi, Mariana di Girolamo, Tom Waits, and Parker Posey. The Telluride response moved it immediately to the top of the awards conversation, ahead of its November 6 release through Searchlight Pictures.
I have been covering this race closely enough to know that Telluride enthusiasm does not always survive contact with the broader Academy electorate. But McDonagh plus Malkovich plus Rockwell plus a November Searchlight release is exactly the kind of combination the Academy has trained itself to recognize and reward.
La Bola Negra, a sweeping Spanish-language epic, arrived from Cannes with significant momentum and continued building at Telluride. I have not seen it yet, but the consistency of the response across two major festivals is not something I am inclined to dismiss. Netflix is running it as their principal awards cause this season, and Netflix knows how to run that campaign.
What I think can actually challenge The Odyssey
I want to be honest about what I am doing when I write a sentence like "the race is wide open." I am usually wrong. September frontrunners hold more often than the conventional wisdom suggests. The films that enter awards season with the kind of institutional support The Odyssey apparently has tend to survive into the nominations and, more often than not, into the winners' circle.
The film I think has the best realistic chance of disrupting that is Wild Horse Nine. Venice Best Actor plus Telluride's strongest critical reception plus a McDonagh pedigree that the Academy knows well is a more serious combination than most challengers arrive with. Whether a November 6 release gives it enough time to convert buzz into votes is the question Searchlight's campaign will spend the next three months answering.
Fjord has the Palme d'Or, which carries institutional weight that the Academy has consistently respected. Renate Reinsve is also in The Backrooms this year, which means she will be visible to Academy members twice this fall. That kind of dual presence can help or hurt depending on which performance voters prefer. I think Mungiu's track record is strong enough that Fjord will be in the conversation in January regardless.
The Debut, directed by Jesse Eisenberg and distributed by A24, stars Julianne Moore as a bored housewife cast in community theater and Paul Giamatti as the tyrannical director running it. The combination of that cast, that director, and that distributor is a thing the Academy has trained itself to pay attention to. It has generated consistent buzz out of Telluride and TIFF, and A24 campaigns are usually well-timed.
I am watching all of these films. I am most interested in Wild Horse Nine.
TIFF is still running
The Toronto International Film Festival runs through September 20. I am writing this before the People's Choice Award is announced. The People's Choice has consistently sent films into the Best Picture race, and the 2026 winner is not yet known.
At TIFF this year, the early attention has gone to a few films worth tracking. Being Heumann, directed by Siân Heder, stars Ruth Madeley as disability activist Judy Heumann. Heder directed CODA, which won Best Picture in 2022. I think what interests me about Being Heumann is not just the pedigree but the subject: Judy Heumann spent decades fighting for disability rights in ways most people have never heard about, and that kind of story tends to land hard when it is told well. Madeley's performance has generated early awards discussion, and I am paying attention.
Mike Leigh's Tender Loving Care has generated the kind of quiet, concentrated attention that Leigh's films tend to produce when they are at their best. There is a conversation happening about whether this might be his final feature. If it is, the Academy will have a strong incentive to recognize it before the opportunity passes.
Andrew Scott's Elsinore has screened at both Telluride and TIFF. Scott plays Ian Charleson, the British actor who performed Hamlet at the National Theatre while battling AIDS. Scott is one of the most respected actors working right now. A performance built around a story like Charleson's is the kind that accumulates nominations.
I will know more on Monday. Whatever TIFF produces will reshape the conversation for October.
What I actually think
My read, sitting in mid-September: The Odyssey holds.
Nolan's relationship with the Academy took a long time to solidify and now functions as its own gravitational field. The Oppenheimer precedent matters not because history repeats but because Academy members tend to reward the patterns they have rewarded before, and rewarding a Nolan summer epic as a prestige achievement is now an established pattern.
The film I think has the best chance of disrupting that is Wild Horse Nine, and I think that chance is real. McDonagh has the track record and the cast. Malkovich has the Venice prize. November 6 gives Searchlight a clear runway. If the film is as good as Telluride suggests, I would not dismiss its chances.
The Odyssey arrived in July. The festivals have spent three months producing challengers. The next three months are for the challengers to make their case. I have seen this race from September before. What I have learned is that the film everyone assumes will win in September usually does, and that the one or two films that upset it are always the ones the September consensus dismissed as "not quite enough."
I am watching Wild Horse Nine in November. I am hoping Fjord reaches me before January. I expect to be writing about The Odyssey in March.
FAQ
What is The Odyssey and why is it the Oscar frontrunner? The Odyssey is Christopher Nolan's 2026 adaptation of Homer's epic poem, released July 17 through Universal Pictures. Matt Damon stars as Odysseus. It is projected by some awards forecasters for as many as fifteen Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards in March 2027, making it the clear early frontrunner as of mid-September.
What won the Golden Lion at Venice 2026? Woman Unknown, directed by May El-Toukhy, won the Golden Lion at the 83rd Venice Film Festival. Mathilde Arcel won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress for the same film. Woman Unknown was the only film in the Venice competition lineup directed solely by a woman.
What won the Palme d'Or at Cannes 2026? Fjord, directed by Cristian Mungiu, won the Palme d'Or at Cannes 2026. The film stars Renate Reinsve and Sebastian Stan as devoutly religious parents facing abuse allegations after relocating to Norway.
What is Wild Horse Nine? Wild Horse Nine is a black comedy directed by Martin McDonagh. John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell play two CIA agents on a mission to Easter Island. The full cast includes Steve Buscemi, Mariana di Girolamo, Tom Waits, and Parker Posey. Malkovich won the Venice Volpi Cup for Best Actor. The film opens November 6 through Searchlight Pictures.
When are the 2027 Oscar nominations announced? Oscar nominations for the 99th Academy Awards will be announced on January 21, 2027. The ceremony takes place on March 14, 2027.
What is the TIFF People's Choice Award? The People's Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival is voted on by TIFF attendees and announced at the close of the festival. It has consistently identified films that go on to compete at the Academy Awards. The 2026 winner will be announced September 20.
Who are the current Best Actress frontrunners for the 2027 Oscars? As of mid-September, the leading predictions include Julianne Moore (The Debut), Renate Reinsve (Fjord), Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann), and Mathilde Arcel (Woman Unknown). These are awards forecaster predictions, not nominations.
Who are the current Best Actor frontrunners? Current predictions include Matt Damon (The Odyssey), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine, Venice Volpi Cup winner), Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary), and Andrew Scott (Elsinore). Nominations are not announced until January 21, 2027.
The 99th Academy Awards take place March 14, 2027. Tracking what arrives next at incoming.to.